No Cookie Cutter Protests

The Egyptian revolution that led to the resignation of Hosni Mumbarak was successful by many measures:  It took only 18 days of relatively peaceful protests and demonstrations to convince Mumbarak, who had been in power for about thirty years, to step down.  The Egyptian military was instrumental in maintaining order and largely ensuring orderly proceedings during the demonstrations; and still the death toll ended up at around 365, with 5500 more treated for injuries.  Mumbarak has said, and it isn't hard to believe, that he initially thought he had the majority support of the people, and that the beginnings of the protest were led by some minority dissenters.  Once the contrary became apparent--that the majority in fact was out on the streets protesting--Mumbarak quickly requested that his newly appointed vice president announce his resignation, and left the country.    

The success did not go unnoticed, and countries in the Middle East and Africa--including Libya, Kuwait, Yemen, Morocco, Bahrain, Iraq, Southern Sudan, and several others--have taken to the streets to overthrow their governments.  Even China led protests and demonstrations for reform.  While some countries may be successful in overthrowing their governing regime and obtaining reform, the costs will be much higher than they were in Egypt.  

Egypt had a unique combination of factors that led to its successful revolution: a non-corrupt military, a leader who through he was doing what was best for the people, and a united people with the same end goal in mind.  Because no two countries are the same--and most don't have the factors present in Egypt--cookie cutter protests can't be expected to have the same results worldwide.  Repressive leaders are even more determined to fight back after seeing what happened in Egypt.  Protesters may rebel because they are unhappy, but it's unclear that all of them want the same outcome for their nations.  Most importantly, there isn't anyone readily available to take charge and maintain peace in a non-dictator way once a government has been overthrown in most places.  The protests happening now are likely to have devastating death tolls and disruption, with unpredictable consequences for the state of each country involved.  But there is a point when people are left with no other choice, and that time may be now.